Gold prices are expected to reach $8,900 by the end of 2030.

The 2025 annual report "We Trust Gold" released by the gold investment company Incrementum points out that the world is undergoing a new round of financial reconstruction, and the strategic significance of gold is becoming increasingly prominent. The report analyzes the trends in the gold market, future expectations, the role of crypto assets, and potential risks, providing investors with a long-term and robust framework for gold investment.

Current Status of the Gold Market

Gold is currently in a "public participation phase" of a bull market, characterized by:

• Media reports are becoming increasingly optimistic
• Speculative interest and trading volume are rising
• New financial products launched
• Analysts raise price target

In the past five years, global gold prices have risen by 92%, and the actual purchasing power of the dollar against gold has decreased by nearly 50%. Last year, gold set 43 historical highs, and as of the end of April this year, it has already set 22 new highs.

Key Factors Affecting Gold

Geopolitical Restructuring

The global geopolitical landscape is accelerating its restructuring, which is favorable for gold. Gold has three major advantages as an anchor for the new monetary order: neutrality, no counterparty risk, and high liquidity.

central bank demand

Central bank demand is the key pillar for the "big bulls." For three consecutive years, central banks have increased their gold reserves by over 1,000 tons. As of February 2025, global gold reserves reached 36,252 tons. In 2024, gold accounted for 22% of monetary reserves, the highest level since 1997.

The legal currency continues to depreciate

Since 1900, the M2 money supply in the United States has increased 2,333 times, far exceeding population growth. The growth of the money supply is a key long-term driver of gold prices.

Gold as portfolio insurance

Analyzing 16 bear markets from 1929 to 2025, gold outperformed the S&P 500 in 15 of them, with an average relative performance of +42.55%.

Gold Price Prediction

Incrementum Gold Price Model Forecast:

• Basic scenario: approximately $4800 by the end of 2030, mid-term target of $2942 by the end of 2025.
• Inflation scenario: approximately $8900 by the end of 2030, mid-term target of $4080 by the end of 2025

The current gold price has exceeded the mid-term target set for the basic scenario by the end of 2025.

Investment Opportunities in "Performance Gold"

Silver and mining stocks have significant catching-up potential in the current decade. Market dynamics show that gold typically leads the rally, followed by silver, mining stocks, and commodities.

Bitcoin

The report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold's market value. If we conservatively estimate the price of gold at $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to around $900,000 to reach half of gold's market value.

Potential Risk Factors

• Unexpected decline in central bank demand
• Investors reduce positions and decrease holdings
• Decline in geopolitical premium
• The US economy is stronger than expected.
• Excessively bullish sentiment
• US dollar strengthens

Conclusion

The report believes that the gold bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-term stage of public participation. Gold is transitioning from being seen as an outdated relic to a key asset in investment portfolios. The long-term rise is based on factors such as the restructuring of the global financial monetary system, government inflation tendencies, and the rise of the Asian economy. As traditional safe-haven assets lose trust, gold has once again become the core of long-term investment strategies.