Crypto Assets Market Outlook and Trading Strategy Analysis

Bitcoin Price Expectations

Arthur Hayes insists that the price of Bitcoin could reach 250,000 USD by the end of this year. He expects that major global economies may print about 9 trillion USD in the coming years, which will drive up the price of Bitcoin. Compared to stocks or gold, the scarcity and decentralization of Bitcoin give it an advantage in coping with currency devaluation and liquidity excess.

The Prospects of Altcoins

Hayes believes that most altcoins may not rise again this year, as they lack "product-market fit," meaning the products do not meet market demand. Most projects do not have revenue to return to coin holders. He suggests focusing on the "narrative" when selecting altcoins, which refers to the story behind the project and the logic that attracts investors.

The Invention of Perpetual Contracts

Hayes explained that the birth of perpetual contracts originated from customer feedback. Many users found it difficult to understand traditional futures contracts, so they designed a trading product that has no expiration date and can provide high leverage. This addressed the practical problems of users while alleviating the pressure of repeatedly answering questions.

Outlook on US Financial Policy

Hayes expects that the United States may gradually implement capital controls, starting with the removal of the "withholding tax exemption". He believes this will not lead to a market crash, as the government will fill the funding gap by printing money. Hayes stated that the withdrawal of foreign capital from the U.S. market could create opportunities for emerging market countries, driving the appreciation of their currencies and economic growth.

Exchange Development Trends

Hayes believes that the Crypto Assets exchange market has entered a state of perfect competition. The products are highly homogeneous, and the core of the competition lies in marketing. Traditional banks have begun to offer similar services, increasing the survival pressure on centralized exchanges. He predicts that in the future, exchanges will focus more on attracting "Degen" users and optimizing the new coin issuance process.

Intergenerational Investment Differences

Hayes pointed out that Asian investors have lower trust in the government and are more cautious in their investments. The active cryptocurrency trading in South Korea is related to its high internet penetration rate and developed gaming culture. He predicts that intergenerational conflict may arise in the future, as the younger generation is unwilling to purchase assets from the older generation. The government may choose to print a large amount of money to address this issue.

Investment Strategy

Hayes's fund Maelstrom primarily invests in Bitcoin and Ethereum, while also participating in some project investments. Their goal is to exceed the returns of Bitcoin, but the trading frequency is not high. Hayes is planning to launch an acquisition business to acquire some cash flow stable and highly profitable Crypto Assets companies.