Web3 Industry Downturn: Bitcoin Adoption Rate Still in Early Stage, Builders Continue to Deepen Efforts

During the downturn in the Crypto Assets market, we cannot help but think of Buffett's famous saying: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." This statement aptly describes the current market situation. Recently, there have been continuous reports in the industry about people "withdrawing from the circle"; these reports are not complaints but reflect the state of the industry.

The main reasons people choose to leave this industry are as follows:

First, the long-term sluggishness of the market or the changes it triggers have forced some people to temporarily step away in search of new development opportunities. Secondly, Web3 has been in an unhealthy growth state for the past year or two, causing some value creators to see no real prospects for development and choose to leave. In addition, there is a portion of people attracted by the rise of artificial intelligence, believing that Web3 is outdated and turning to chase new market opportunities.

However, these reasons do not represent the overall situation of the industry. Most people still choose to take a wait-and-see approach or continue to delve deeper, as this industry, which has developed for more than ten years, is not facing similar difficulties for the first time.

Although the departure of some influential figures may affect some people's mentality, this is precisely a critical moment to test the participants in the industry. Setting aside superficial restlessness, we need to focus on the changes happening in the industry as well as the aspects that have not yet changed. Let's analyze from three perspectives:

1. Has the Web3 industry moved from a blue ocean to a red ocean?

According to a research report from a financial services company, currently only 4% of the global population holds Bitcoin, with the highest holding ratio in the United States at about 14%. In terms of development stage, the current Bitcoin adoption rate is comparable to the internet in 1990 or mobile social in 2005.

These data indicate that the adoption rate of digital assets represented by Bitcoin is still in its early stages and has not yet reached the so-called red ocean market. Even from an industry influence perspective, some traditional financial giants have only just entered this field.

From a logical and data analysis perspective, if digital assets are the future development direction, or if Web3 is the intersection of the internet and artificial intelligence, then this "competition" is likely only halfway through, with a long way to go.

2. Is the Web3 market left with only extravagant MEME narratives?

In the past year, the explosion of MEME has indeed sparked considerable controversy, attracting a lot of attention, and has led some people entering this industry to encounter setbacks, even losing faith in the industry. However, MEME is evolving, and after the bubble, it needs a new revival growth, which could bring value to the industry.

We should not focus solely on the surface-level hot changes; builders are still working hard, and valuable projects are still seeking breakthroughs. Although the number of active developers has declined, it remains at a relatively high level.

Although the market currently seems quiet, lacking a groundbreaking narrative like DeFi in the last cycle, looking back, opportunities always arise unexpectedly. The development and changes of anything follow this rule; we need time and patience to wait for the process of quantitative change to qualitative change.

3. Will the Web3 market continue to decline?

Regarding the price issue, most people believe that this cycle is very different from previous ones and lacks similarity. Many predictions have fallen short. However, if the cycle theory is still valid, then we are very likely still in this cycle, just missing the past frenzy of widespread increases.

Recently, due to certain events, the US stock market experienced a sharp decline, with nearly $6.5 trillion in market value evaporating within two days. The three major US stock indices recorded the largest two-day drop and the largest weekly drop since March 2020. This has also led to extreme conditions in global financial markets, and it remains to be seen whether the situation will improve in the short term.

In this case, when Bitcoin has already retraced nearly 30%, and the financial markets are facing a once-in-several-years upheaval, can the entire Crypto Assets market remain unscathed? This is a difficult question to answer.

The ancient economist Fan Li had a saying worth pondering: "When something is extremely valuable, it becomes worthless; when something is extremely worthless, it becomes valuable; when something is seen as worthless, it is obtained like precious gems." Perhaps we are currently in a subtle moment of "regarding everything as worthless."

Will Bitcoin eventually reach $500,000 per coin? Seven years ago, saying that Bitcoin would reach 1 million RMB per coin sounded like a joke, but now it doesn't seem far off. We need to face reality, but remain cautiously optimistic about the future, and continue to move forward on this path, building continuously.