How Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Impact Bitcoin Prices

Over $17 billion in BTC and ETH options expired, with Bitcoin’s Max Pain Point at $102,000 and a Put/Call Ratio of 0.74.

Max Pain theory suggests prices may gravitate toward levels minimizing option payouts, especially during large expiries and thin liquidity.

Macro factors like Fed policy and geopolitical news often override options expiry effects, influencing BTC’s short-term volatility.

On June 27, 2025, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a highly anticipated event: according to data from Deribit, over $17 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts expired today, marking the largest options expiry of the year so far.

Among them, Bitcoin options dominated, with a notional value of $15 billion, a Put/Call Ratio of 0.74, and a Max Pain Point at $102,000.

Source：Deribit

This massive expiry has drawn widespread market attention due to the significant impact options activity can have on short-term price movements.

This article explores how Bitcoin options expiry can influence market prices, explains the mechanics of the Max Pain theory, and analyzes historical data and current market dynamics to provide clear insights for investors.

HOW OPTIONS EXPIRY DRIVES PRICE VOLATILITY

Options expiry refers to the date when options contracts become void, and traders must decide whether to exercise, close, or roll their positions into the next cycle.

In the Bitcoin market, expiries are often accompanied by notable price swings, driven by the behavior of both buyers and sellers.

First, option holders may choose to close positions before expiry to lock in profits or limit losses. This can directly increase buying or selling pressure in the spot market.

For example, if a large number of call option holders close their positions, this could trigger increased sell orders, exerting downward pressure on the price.

Second, option sellers (typically market makers or institutions) engage in delta hedging to remain market-neutral. Delta hedging involves buying or selling Bitcoin in the spot or futures markets to offset the price risk of their options positions.

For instance, if a market maker sells a large volume of call options, they may buy spot BTC to hedge. As the expiry date approaches, this hedging activity can push the price in a certain direction.

Additionally, large-scale expiries amplify market volatility, as traders react quickly with high leverage or rapidly adjust positions.

Historically, quarterly expiries (March, June, September, December) cause more volatility than monthly ones, due to larger contract volumes and more concentrated adjustments by participants.

MAX PAIN THEORY AND THE PRICE “MAGNET EFFECT”

The Max Pain Point is a key concept in options trading. It refers to the price level where option buyers suffer the greatest loss at expiry, while sellers (such as market makers) reap the highest profit.

In theory, market makers may influence the spot or futures price to steer it toward the Max Pain Point, minimizing payouts to buyers—a phenomenon often referred to as the “magnet effect.”

In the Bitcoin market, the effectiveness of the Max Pain theory varies based on market size and external factors.

For example:

On March 29, 2024, BTC’s Max Pain was $69,500. The price rose from $67,210 to $68,940 in the three days prior—an increase of ~2.6%.

On February 28, 2025, BTC slightly pulled back toward its Max Pain of $98,000 before expiry.

These cases suggest that in large-scale quarterly expiries, market makers’ hedging activity may draw prices toward Max Pain.

However, the impact is limited in crypto markets due to their unique structure. For instance, in October 2024, spot BTC trading volume reached $8.2 billion, while options volume was only $1.8 billion—making it difficult for market makers to dominate price movement.

Additionally, macro events (e.g., Fed interest rate decisions) or geopolitical risks often take precedence, overriding options-related pressures.

Therefore, Max Pain may only have a stronger effect when liquidity is thin or positions are highly concentrated.

INTERACTION BETWEEN MARKET DYNAMICS AND EXTERNAL FACTORS

The impact of Bitcoin options expiry on prices does not happen in isolation—it interacts with broader market sentiment and external events.

The Put/Call Ratio is a key metric for gauging sentiment. A low ratio (like 0.74) suggests more call options than puts, reflecting bullish expectations.

This may encourage traders to increase bullish positions before expiry, providing short-term price support.

However, if many in-the-money (ITM) option holders take profits, it can create selling pressure and drive the price downward.

Moreover, Implied Volatility (IV) tends to rise before and during expiry, as traders anticipate larger price swings. According to Deribit’s DVOL Index, IV generally increases before quarterly expiries—but actual volatility depends on spot market liquidity and macro conditions.

For example:

In June 2024, expectations of a Fed rate cut boosted BTC prices, partially offsetting expiry-related downside pressure.

Geopolitical risks or regulatory news can also cause sharp moves, overriding the Max Pain effect.

As such, the influence of options expiry is strongest in calm market conditions, but can be diluted during periods of high uncertainty or external shocks.

TRADING STRATEGIES AND RISK MANAGEMENT

For investors aiming to capitalize on opportunities around options expiry, understanding market dynamics and applying the right strategy is crucial.

Short-term traders can use expiry-related volatility through strategies like straddles or strangles to benefit from price swings.

However, these involve risks—especially under high leverage—so caution is needed, especially during periods of macro or geopolitical uncertainty.

It is advisable to monitor high-delta zones (e.g., $95,000–$105,000), as these are often focal areas for price movement.

Long-term investors can take advantage of post-expiry price rebalancing. If sentiment remains bullish (e.g., Put/Call Ratio < 1), buying spot BTC on dips may be favorable.

One recommended strategy from Deribit analysts is selling cash-secured put options, allowing investors to collect premiums and potentially acquire BTC at lower prices—ideal for long-term bullish holders.

Regardless of strategy, risk management is essential. Setting stop-losses, diversifying positions, and monitoring macro events can help reduce the uncertainty around options expiry.

CONCLUSION

Bitcoin options expiry can significantly impact short-term price movements through closing activity, hedging flows, and the Max Pain effect.

Historical data shows that during large quarterly expiries, BTC prices often gravitate toward Max Pain, with average moves around 2.8%.

However, the effect is not always dominant, as spot market liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors can weaken its influence.

Metrics like the Put/Call Ratio and Implied Volatility provide important clues on sentiment and expected volatility, helping traders plan strategies.

Whether trading short-term volatility or buying long-term dips, investors must adapt to market dynamics and external conditions.

As the Bitcoin options market continues to grow, its influence on prices may become more pronounced—making it an important trend to watch moving forward.

〈How Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Impact Bitcoin Prices〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。