Crypto Assets Investment: The Contradiction Between Macroeconomic Prediction Accuracy and Actual Profitability

The Token2049 conference held in Singapore this week has been unprecedented. The number of attendees has doubled compared to last year, reaching over 20,000. The venue was bustling with activity, with various parties and events happening one after another. Some small projects even charged up to $650,000 for speaking fees on the small stage. The nightclub Marquee is booked every night by different encryption projects, with a venue fee of $200,000 alone.

In contrast, the traditional financial conference Milken Institute held at the same time appears dull and uninteresting. This contrast highlights the vitality of the Crypto Assets industry and the conservativeness of traditional finance.

Looking back at the macroeconomic forecasts over the past year, my accuracy rate was only 25%. Nevertheless, my investments overall still achieved profitability. This is because, regardless of the specific triggering events, as long as the policy responses align with expectations - that is, to curb volatility through money printing - my portfolio can benefit from it.

In recent years, to suppress market volatility, governments and central banks have continuously increased the money supply. Taking the United States as an example, whenever there is increased volatility in the bond market, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and expands its balance sheet. Although this approach is effective in the short term, it requires increasingly more money to maintain in the long run.

In this context, Bitcoin and Crypto Assets have become the release valve for the overflow of fiat currency. As long as the technology of Bitcoin remains reliable, it will continue to benefit from the actions of elites attempting to violate economic laws.

As investors, our goal should be to acquire Bitcoin at the lowest cost. Although short-term speculation is difficult, as long as we do not abuse leverage, holding Bitcoin for the long term remains an effective strategy to cope with future system resets.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates to near 0% and increase credit supply. The EU, China, and Japan will also adopt similar easing policies. In this environment, the Crypto Assets market is expected to continue rising.

For investors who have already fully invested in Crypto Assets, they can watch the changes. For those who still hold fiat currency, now is a good time to invest it in the Crypto market.