XRP ETF approval encounters obstacles, price under pressure, Ethereum and Solana spot ETF's capital-absorbing effect stands out, Bitcoin institutional demand remains strong support | crypto market dynamics

The U.S. SEC has approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) and the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) to transition to a Spot ETF, but simultaneously issued a Stay Order delaying their listing, resulting in XRP being in a short-term regulatory vacuum. As a result, the price of XRP has continued to be under pressure, dropping 0.59% to $3.09 on August 17, while Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.13% and Solana (SOL) increased by 0.72% during the same period. Analysts point out that the approved BTC, ETH, and SOL Spot ETFs are continuously attracting capital inflows, while the key catalyst for a breakthrough in XRP's price still needs to await the launch of a dedicated Spot ETF and the final ruling on the Ripple case.

SEC's delay order severely impacts XRP: Spot ETF approval stuck in a stalemate

On July 22, the US SEC approved the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) to convert to a Spot ETF, but simultaneously issued a delay order that postponed its listing process. This operation is reminiscent of the earlier experience of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) in its conversion to the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC) — this fund was also approved but had its listing postponed, with a portfolio that includes BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP. Grayscale has submitted a letter of objection to the SEC, questioning the legality of the delay order issued by the regulatory agency, but the SEC has not publicly responded. The market is concerned that the delay order will cause XRP to miss out on the influx of funds for this round of Spot ETFs, while BTC, ETH, and SOL continue to benefit from the growing demand for already listed products.

XRP Price Dilemma: $3.2 Becomes a Key Resistance Level

On August 17, XRP fell by 0.59% to close at $3.09, significantly underperforming the overall encryption market, which rose by 0.39% that day (total market capitalization of $3.94 trillion). The short-term price trend depends on multiple catalysts:

• XRP Spot ETF approval progress
• The trend of central banks around the world incorporating XRP into reserve assets
• XRP ( Ripple ) Progress of obtaining a banking license in the United States
• Potential collaboration of SWIFT cross-border payment network integrating XRP
• Encryption-friendly legislation (such as the CLARITY Act) is being promoted. Technical analysis shows that breaking through the resistance level of $3.2 is expected to test the high point of August 8 at $3.3826, and further challenge the historical peak of July 18 at $3.6606 (Binance data). Conversely, if it falls below the $3 mark, it may trigger a test of the 50-day moving average support, or even dip to the low point of August 3 at $2.7254.

Bitcoin High-Level Consolidation: Institutional Accumulation and ETF Inflows Build Support

Despite a slight drop of 0.11% in BTC to $117,500 on August 17, it has maintained above $115,000 for 10 consecutive trading days, highlighting strong buying support. Simon Gerovich, president of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet, publicly announced an increase in holdings roadmap: "The target is to hold 30,000 BTC by 2025, and to hold 1% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2027." Currently, Metaplanet ranks 7th globally among listed companies with holdings of 18,113 BTC, while Strategy (MSTR) tops the list with 628,946 BTC. The institutional buying trend and the continued capital inflow into the U.S. BTC Spot ETF (with a net inflow of $547.6 million for the week ending August 15) create a synergistic effect.

ETH Spot ETF's capital-raising power crushes BTC, market sentiment hides secrets

Capital flow reveals structural changes: The net inflow into the US ETH Spot ETF market reached as high as $2.8521 billion during the same period, significantly exceeding the BTC Spot ETF. This phenomenon may prompt funds to rotate from BTC to ETH and other altcoins, temporarily suppressing Bitcoin's upside potential. The fear and greed index from the on-chain analysis platform Santiment shows: "BTC's historical peak coincided with the market's extreme greed, while ETH, despite outperforming in the past three months, has seen market bullish sentiment lag significantly." Given that prices often move inversely to retail expectations, ETH displays a more optimistic technical outlook due to "insufficient buying interest on dips."

BTC Long and Short Game: Three Core Variables Determine Direction

The short-term trend of Bitcoin depends on the following key factors:

• Federal Reserve policy signals: Federal Reserve meeting minutes, officials' speeches, and the tone of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
• Economic Data Resilience: US Services PMI and Unemployment Claims
• Regulatory Legislation Breakthrough: The CLARITY Act ( is progressing in Congress.
• ETF fund flows: The impact of net inflow/outflow scale on supply and demand balance
• Bearish scenario: Legislative obstacles + rising risk of economic recession + hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve + outflow of ETF funds, which may trigger a BTC pullback to test the 50-day moving average, and even the key support at $100,000.
• Bullish scenario: Regulatory legislative breakthroughs + expectations of a soft economic landing + dovish turn of the Federal Reserve + inflow of ETF funds could drive BTC to test the historical high of $123,731 again.

Conclusion

The delay in the approval of the XRP Spot ETF has exposed the regulatory uncertainty and its suppressive effect on single assets, while ETH and SOL continue to attract traditional capital with the already listed ETFs. Although Bitcoin faces pressure from capital rotation, the strategic increase in holdings by listed companies and the supportive mechanism of the Spot ETF provide strong support. Crypto investors need to closely monitor three main lines: 1) The approval process for the XRP exclusive ETF and the conclusion of the Ripple case; 2) The intensity of capital flow rotation between ETH and BTC; 3) The Fed's policy shift and legislative breakthroughs with the "Clarity Act". In the battle for historical highs, the behavior of institutions and regulatory trends will have more pricing power than retail sentiment.