Elon Musk raised a serious question: Can quantum computers break Bitcoin?

Elon Musk raises new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin in the context of the rapid development of Quantum Computing.

Written by: bitcoinist

Compiled by: Blockchain Knight

Elon Musk has raised new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin in the context of the rapid development of Quantum Computing. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX is exploring the possibility of the SHA-256 hashing algorithm used by Bitcoin being cracked by powerful quantum computers through his AI chatbot Grok.

At the time he raised this issue, IBM had just announced its major plans for the next-generation quantum system "Blue Jay," which is expected to achieve 2,000 global quantum bits by 2033.

According to Grok's analysis, the risk of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin encryption in the next five years is extremely low, with AI estimating this probability to be close to zero.

However, looking ahead to 2035, the probability will slightly increase, but it will still be below 10%. This data is based on expert assessments and current Quantum Computing capabilities.

"Based on the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and IBM's 2025 evaluation and expert survey, the probability of quantum computers cracking SHA-256 through Grover's algorithm (reducing the original image search complexity to about 2^128 operations) is close to 0% in the next 5 years and below 10% before 2035. This requires millions of error corrections..." — Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025

Elon Musk's concerns are not unfounded. Companies like Google and Microsoft are developing their own quantum platforms (Willow and Majorana 1), raising discussions about whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could potentially be attacked by these super powerful systems in the future.

Currently, most quantum systems only have about 1000 quantum bits, far less than the millions of error-correcting quantum bits that scientists believe are needed to break Bitcoin's cryptographic defenses.

Grok added that if needed in the future, stronger algorithms such as SHA-3 or SHA-512 could be used as alternatives.

At the same time, a recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte shows that quantum computers may soon threaten the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with approximately 25% of Bitcoin currently at risk of being stolen by quantum attacks.

Analysts indicate that the computing power of ultimate quantum computers could be strong enough to crack the entire transaction process. To mitigate this risk, the Bitcoin network needs to adopt post-quantum cryptography. This is an emerging but complex solution that cryptographers around the world are currently exploring.

IBM's new system "Blue Jay" will have over 1 billion gate operations capability, far exceeding the performance range of current computers.

This is an important initiative for the company to strive to be at the forefront of Quantum Computing in the early 2030s. As industry giants like Google and Microsoft closely pursue, competition is becoming increasingly fierce.

Musk's interest is not out of academic curiosity. Tesla currently holds 11,500 Bitcoins, valued at approximately 1.3 billion dollars at current prices. SpaceX also holds a significant amount, reportedly worth about 850 million dollars in Bitcoin. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal investment portfolio.

Given these positions, it's no wonder Musk wants to proactively address potential threats. His tweets seem casual, yet they indicate the tech industry's growing concern over the impact that advancements in Quantum Computing may have on the cryptocurrency and financial sectors.