Crypto Market Trends and Analysis

Market Observation

Recently, a well-known political figure nominated economic advisor Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, succeeding Adriana Kugler for the remainder of her term until January 2026. Miran has long supported the idea of interest rate cuts and proposed structural reforms for the Federal Reserve, including stripping it of its bank regulatory powers, which some observers view as a significant challenge to the independence of the central bank. Although Miran's term is short, and the Senate confirmation process may delay his participation in the FOMC meeting in mid-September, the market has interpreted this as a clear signal of a shift towards accommodative monetary policy.

At the same time, there are reports that an executive order will be issued, instructing the Department of Labor and other agencies to reassess and facilitate the investment of cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets in retirement savings plans such as 401(k). In response, industry experts predict that if crypto assets occupy 1% to 10% of the 401(k) plan, it could bring in $80 billion to $800 billion in capital inflow. Analysts believe that the impact of this measure is comparable to the approval of spot ETFs, marking Bitcoin's official entry into mainstream compliant investment channels and becoming an allocation option for retirement plans. This will introduce a large amount of stable long-term capital, help reduce market volatility, and further strengthen Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" as a store of value, while also paving the way for other countries to follow suit and for the compliance development of RWA and DeFi.

In the Hong Kong market, multiple listed companies are competing to布局 RWA, driving the corresponding stock price growth. Analysts point out that companies with deep RWA tokenization capabilities, as well as those with strong technological research and development capabilities in areas such as smart contracts, cross-chain technology, or metaverse applications, will have a more competitive advantage. These companies can bring traditional assets such as real estate and bonds onto the blockchain through technological innovation, thereby enhancing asset liquidity and optimizing investment portfolios. At the same time, investors should be wary of companies that only chase trends, lacking substantial technological investment and long-term strategic planning. Such companies often rely excessively on market speculation, and their projects may undermine investor confidence and trigger regulatory risks due to detachment from real user needs.

Bitcoin broke through $117,500 this morning. Data analysis shows that after the BTC price reached an all-time high of about $123,000 in July, it entered a "bullish cooling" phase and a narrow trading range due to slowing liquidity and profit-taking. The market anticipates that a potential interest rate cut in September could be a bullish catalyst. Data monitoring indicates that the overall supply in the $110,000 to $116,000 range remains light, and the market may need more time to accumulate to establish a new support base. If it cannot break through the resistance at $116,900, it will face the risk of further decline to $110,000; however, the short-term holder cost line at $106,000 still provides support.

Analysts point out that holding the monthly opening price of $115,600 is key to maintaining the upward trend, while $117,200 is a critical resistance level that needs to be confirmed. Observations show that the current Bitcoin price has surpassed the cost price of short-term holders at $117,600, which may trigger profit-taking. On-chain data analysis indicates that although approximately 95% of addresses are in profit, there is significant resistance in the range of $116,000 to $119,000, as a large number of holders are still in a loss after buying in this range. Market liquidity is advancing towards the next liquidity target of $119,000 after hitting $116,800. However, signs such as increased Bitcoin outflows from exchanges and continuous net inflows into large addresses indicate a tightening supply and a risk-reward structure skewed to the upside. If it can successfully break through $119,000, it may initiate a new round of upward movement.

Ethereum broke through recent historical highs this morning. Analysts point out that as the price approaches the psychological threshold of $4,000, once it breaks through, this level may become a solid support. Some traders believe that Ethereum's strength is a precursor to an explosion in the crypto market, indicating that altcoins could see an increase of 200% to 500% in the coming months. The ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded about 75% from the May low, successfully breaking the downward trend, injecting positive momentum into the entire altcoin sector. Institutional interest is also strong, with reports that since June, Ethereum treasury companies and spot ETFs have cumulatively purchased about 1.6% of the total supply of Ethereum, while a Nasdaq-listed company plans to raise up to $5 billion to purchase Ethereum. Against this backdrop, some analysts have even made optimistic predictions that Ethereum's price could reach $16,000.

Key Data (as of August 8, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $116,954 (YTD +24.59%), daily spot trading volume $38.732 billion
• Ethereum: $3,944.90 (Year-to-date +16.98%), daily spot trading volume is $37.192 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 60.0%, ETH 12.2%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 51.08%/48.92%
• Sector fluctuations: Layer2 sector increased by 9.39%; PayFi sector increased by 9.97%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 115,938 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $408 million, including $53.41 million in BTC liquidations, $191 million in ETH liquidations, and $26.59 million in XRP liquidations.
• BTC Mid to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (117163.94 USD), Lower Channel Line (114843.86 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (3721.59 USD), lower channel line (3647.89 USD)

ETF Flows (as of August 7)

• Bitcoin ETF: +281 million USD
• Ethereum ETF: +$222 million, sustained net inflow for 3 days

Today's Outlook

• Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on August 8 at 8 AM, accounting for 1.30% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 12.2 million USD.
• Space and Time (SXT) will unlock approximately 24.64 million tokens on August 8 at 9 PM, worth about 2 million dollars.
• Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock approximately 1.45 million tokens on August 8, worth about 41 million USD.
• Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8 PM on August 9, which is 1.89% of the current circulation, valued at about 6.5 million USD.
• Render (RENDER) will unlock approximately 492,000 tokens at 8:00 AM on August 10, which accounts for 0.09% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $1.7 million.

Top 100 market cap largest gains today: Pendle up 27.4%, Mantle up 21.1%, Aerodrome Finance up 17%, Lido DAO up 16.9%, Stellar up 15.2%.

Hot News

• A Nasdaq-listed company plans to issue up to $5 billion in securities to acquire more Ethereum.
• Chainlink launched the strategic LINK reserve, with over one million dollars worth of LINK stored.
• INFINIT: IN airdrop claims will open today at 18:00 and will last for one month.
• A trading platform will launch IP tokens in the KRW, BTC, and USDT markets.
• The address belonging to the founder of a certain investment institution has held ETH for more than two years, expecting to profit $7.796 million.
• Orca DAO proposes to stake 55,000 SOL and implement a two-year ORCA buyback plan.
• Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume reached $238 billion in July, the highest since December 2021.
• The Bitcoin and Ethereum options market showed a bearish trend in August.