📈 I. Price Trend: Seeking Direction Amidst High-Level Volatility

Key ranges and recent fluctuations
Consolidation Range: BTC has recently fluctuated widely between $112,000 and $123,000, reaching a high of $122,321 on August 11, but failed to effectively break through the resistance at $123,000, closing back down at $119,529.
Support and Resistance:
Support below: $114,000-$115,000 (tested platform multiple times in August)
Resistance above: $123,000 (annual high set on July 14, 2025).
Volume change: On August 11, the trading volume significantly increased to 89 billion USD, the highest in nearly two weeks, indicating intensified bullish and bearish competition.
Monthly performance and seasonal patterns
July saw a rise and subsequent fall: After reaching an annual high of $123,091 on July 14, it retraced to the $115,000 region by the end of the month.
"August Curse" Pressure: Historical data shows that in the past 10 years, BTC has averaged a decline of 11.4% in August, only breaking this pattern in the years following halving (2013, 2017, 2021). The year 2025 is also a year following halving, and the market is focused on whether it can rise against the trend.

📊 2. Market Sentiment: Divergence Between Bulls and Bears Intensifies
Sentiment indicator is neutral and cautious: the Fear and Greed Index remains in the 50-60 range, not entering extreme greed or panic zones.
On-chain signal differentiation:
Long-term holders (LTH) have stable positions, indicating confidence in the market outlook.
Short-term traders (STH) frequently traded between $116,000 and $120,000, reflecting a strong speculative sentiment.
Derivatives Market: The funding rate for perpetual contracts has returned to neutral, with no signs of excessive leverage; the put/call ratio for options has slightly increased, as some funds seek downside protection.

📉 3. Technical Formation: Convergence Triangle Terminal's Trend Change Warning
Key signals on the daily chart
Symmetrical triangle convergence: Price fluctuations continue to narrow, with highs and lows gradually approaching, and volatility dropping to a yearly low, indicating a possible direction choice within 1-3 days.
Moving Average System Stalemate: The 50-day moving average (~$116,000) and the 200-day moving average (~$110,000) are gradually converging. If a golden cross forms, it may support the bullish trend.
Momentum Indicator Divergence
MACD: The fast and slow lines at the daily level are intertwined with the zero axis, and the histogram is decreasing in volume, indicating insufficient short-term momentum.
RSI: Remains in the neutral range of 55-60, not overbought or oversold.

💰 4. Capital Flow: Institutional Layout and Sector Rotation
ETF capital differentiation: Spot ETFs such as BlackRock experienced net outflows at the beginning of the week, but funds flowed back in the latter half of the week, indicating institutional willingness to accumulate at lower prices.
Altcoin capital flow: BTC's market cap share dropped from 66% to 60%, with funds migrating to altcoins like ETH and SOL. ETH's market share surpassed 13%, reaching an 8-month high.
Corporate Accumulation Trends: Listed companies such as MicroStrategy continue to increase their BTC holdings, purchasing about 21,000 coins in August, with long-term circulation locked.

🔮 5. Future Outlook: Key Catalysts and Change Windows
Scenario Trigger Conditions Technical Objectives
Bullish breakout Daily closing stands firm at $123,000 + trading volume increased by 1.5 times Challenging the new high of $130,000
The range continues to fluctuate between $114,000 and $123,000, waiting for macro or on-chain data to catalyze.
Deep pullback Break below $114,000 support + Panic index soaring Testing the $110,000-$106,000 range
Short-term catalytic factors:
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: If a rate cut occurs in September, it may boost risk assets. biya is a global multi-asset trading wallet that allows for easy conversion of major fiat currencies to digital currencies. It also provides convenient withdrawal solutions, effectively addressing freezing issues and asset withdrawals. Users can easily engage in trading and withdrawals through the U platform.
Technical analysis of market reversal: A breakthrough at the end of a converging triangle requires volume support; otherwise, it is prone to false breakouts.
On-chain data verification: Continuous net outflow from exchanges or growth in stablecoin market capitalization will provide support signals.
💎 Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a balanced state of "technical convergence," "neutral sentiment," and "divergent capital," and the breakout direction in the range of $114,000-$123,000 will determine the short-term trend. Key attention should be given to three sets of signals:
Volume Change: A breakout requires an increase to more than 1.5 times the daily average.
Institutional Trends: ETF Fund Flows and Changes in Corporate Holdings;
Macroeconomic correlation: The fluctuations of the US stock technology sector and the US dollar index.