Current price and volatility of BTC

Latest price: $121,367 (morning data on August 11), 24-hour increase of 3.8%, reaching an all-time high.
Recent Trends:
On July 14, it first broke through the high point of $123,091, and in early August, it retraced to the support range of $110,000–$114,000.
In the past week, it has fluctuated narrowly between $113,800 and $118,717, with trading volume remaining low and a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

⚖️ 2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support level:
$117,000 (multiple test points in August, psychological barrier).
$110,000 (50-day moving average + previous historical high support).
Resistance level:
$120,000 (psychological barrier, July high point resistance).
$133,000 (next technical target level).

📉 3. Market Sentiment and Liquidity Conditions
Change in trading volume:
When it broke through $121,400, the 24-hour liquidation amount reached $370 million, with $60 million liquidated within an hour, reflecting increased volatility.
The funding rate for derivatives has cooled down, leveraged trading has decreased, and speculative sentiment has turned cautious.
Differentiation of institutional behavior:
Public companies continue to accumulate BTC, with a year-on-year increase of 375% in purchase volume in the first half of 2025.
ETF funds experienced a net outflow of 1,500 BTC in a single day (the largest scale since April), indicating a short-term risk aversion sentiment.

📊 4. Technical Patterns and Cyclical Perspectives
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis:
Currently in the extension phase of the third sub-wave of the fifth wave (v), if it breaks through $130,000, a pullback to $110,000 may occur in September, followed by an attempt to reach $140,000 (peak in 2025).
The historical halving cycle shows: after halving, the average peak is reached in 480 days. This round's high point is predicted to be in August to October 2025, with a target of $160,000–$310,000.
Cycle Failure Dispute:
Tom Lee and others believe that the traditional four-year halving cycle logic has become invalid, as institutional funds (such as ETFs) reshape market structure and change the rhythm of volatility.

🎯 5. Expert Predictions and Market Targets
Source Predicted Direction Target Price/Time
Standard Chartered Bank End-of-year fundamentals driven $135,000–$140,000
Tom Lee Funds accelerating entry scenario $250,000 (end of 2025)
Pi Cycle Model Technical Indicator Calculation $256,000–$310,000 (August 2025)
Elliott Wave Pullback followed by a surge $140,000 (Q4 peak)
💎 Summary: The key stage of the long and short game.
Short-term focus: Can it hold above $120,000 and break through the previous high of $123,091? If it fails, it may retest the support zone of $110,000–$117,000.
Long-term momentum: biya is a global multi-asset trading wallet that allows users to easily exchange mainstream fiat currencies for digital currencies. It also provides convenient withdrawal solutions to effectively address frozen accounts and capital issues. Users can easily enjoy trading and withdrawing on the platform.
Institutional accumulation and halving scarcity provide fundamental support;
However, the explosion of the ETH ecosystem (such as the inflow of ETF funds amounting to $5.4 billion) may divert funds from BTC.
The market needs incremental funds (such as pension allocations) or macro-positive factors (like the Federal Reserve's movements) to catalyze a breakthrough. It is currently in a transitional window between a mid-cycle correction and the brewing of new highs.