The five eyes of the market: plate, value, Arbitrage, macro, narrative - which one are you? 🧵

Everyone looks at the market as if they are wearing glasses of different colors.
In some people's eyes, it's all about the plates;
In some people's eyes, there is nothing but value;
Some people only see the one millimeter of arbitrage;
There are still people chasing the narrative.
This is not theory; it is a living sample I've seen over ten years in trading rooms, the crypto space, and stock groups.

1⃣Direction 1: Plate Party

The worldview of the plate faction is very simple—everything is a Ponzi scheme, just varying in the speed of collapse.
The logic is: behind the price is the capital chain; behind the capital chain is human nature.
Human nature makes mistakes, so the market will inevitably crash.
They don't care about the white paper, don't look at K-line indicators, but focus on trading volume, wallet addresses, and sentiment intensity.

Advantages: Quick sense of smell, enters early, and runs fast.
Disadvantages: They almost never hold for the long term, even when they encounter a slow bull market that could yield tenfold or a hundredfold returns, they can't help but get off midway.

2⃣Direction 2: Value Investing

Value investors firmly believe: the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.
Their world is fundamentals, cash flow, and scarcity.
Stocks need to look at financial reports, while cryptocurrencies need to look at the ecosystem.
They have a motto: "Don't invest in things you don't understand."

Advantages: If you have good insight, time is your friend.
Disadvantages: In a bull market, it is easy to miss out, as the prices of good companies/good projects may not correct at all.

3⃣Direction 3: Arbitrage Group

Arbitrage players do not talk about dreams, only about price differences.
They are like the dealers in a casino - they don't gamble on wins or losses, they only collect the rake.
Cross-exchange arbitrage, futures and spot arbitrage, market making, liquidity mining...
They are not pursuing huge profits, but rather stable cash flow.

Advantages: low volatility, replicable.
Disadvantages: High threshold, requires low-cost capital and technical tools.

4⃣Direction 4: Macroeconomic Faction

Macroeconomists look at the wind direction, not the details of individual stocks or coins.
Interest rates, policies, cycles, global capital flows - these are their emotional buttons.
They can go all-in at the start of a bull market and decisively withdraw before risks arise.

Advantages: Captures the big trends.
Disadvantages: Details are not precise, and short-term rhythms are often偏.

5⃣ Direction 5: Narrative School

The narrative school lives in emotions and stories.
The new theme is their traffic light.
NFT, AI, GameFi, inscriptions, meme coins...
They don't care about valuation; they only care if someone entered the market later than themselves.

Advantages: Explosive short-term returns.
Disadvantage: The speed of a crash may be faster than a surge.

6⃣Multiple Perspective Conflict

You will find that people with different perspectives discussing the same subject seem to be speaking different languages:

The Plate Party said: "Run fast, this is the last leg."
The value faction said: "This is just the beginning of releasing potential."
Arbitrage faction said: "You all keep arguing, I have already locked in profits."
The macroeconomic faction says: "I'll consider it when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates."
The Narrative School said: "Bro, this wave is a hundred times meme."

7⃣ Practical Suggestions

Early Bull Market: Narrative Players + Plate Players are the easiest to make quick money.
Mid-Bull Market: Arbitrage and Macro factions begin to harvest stable returns.
Bear Market: Value investors gradually bottom-fish, while macro investors wait for signals.
At any time: learn to switch your lenses, don't just use one filter to look at the market.

In the past, the biggest loss I suffered was wavering between growth stocks and value stocks.
The result - didn't get in when it was rising, but took all the hits when it was falling.
Later I understood that every perspective is useful, but using it at the wrong time is a disaster.

The market is like a mirror, reflecting different worlds through different eyes.

If you can't understand what others are looking at, you won't be able to guess what they will do next.
So, don't rush to say who's right or wrong - first think about what glasses you're wearing?