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Tonight, the Crypto Assets market staged an unexpected reversal, its dramatic degree comparable to a meticulously orchestrated thriller. The surprising non-farm payroll data became the trigger for the market turmoil.
The actual non-farm payroll data was only 70,000, far below the expected 110,000, clearly conveying signals of a weak job market. Normally, this should lead to a weakening of the dollar, while the price of gold should rise. However, Bitcoin, known as 'digital gold', went against this trend, breaking below the important support level of 114,000, which truly left market participants puzzled.
The main reason is still due to the close connection between the Crypto Assets market and the U.S. stock market. The weakening of the U.S. dollar led to a sharp drop in the Nasdaq index, and stocks related to Crypto Assets suffered heavy losses, with Coinbase's stock price falling significantly. It is noteworthy that this bull market has been driven by ETFs, institutional investors, and stocks related to Crypto Assets, with ties to the U.S. stock market being closer than ever. Therefore, when the U.S. stock market declines, the Crypto Assets market finds it difficult to remain unscathed and has to bear the pressure accordingly.
Currently, the market's focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve and Powell. Weak employment data has caused expectations for a rate cut in September to soar to 75%. At the same time, Trump is also applying pressure, threatening to take over the Federal Reserve if rates are not cut. The power struggle between these two heavyweight figures has become even more intense than the fluctuations in coin prices.
Although the expectation of interest rate cuts is usually seen as good news, the panic sentiment in the US stock market has not completely dissipated in the short term, and the Crypto Assets market still needs to follow the US stock market through a period of turbulence.
Next, the market will mainly focus on two aspects: first, whether Bitcoin can stabilize at the $110,000 mark to avoid triggering a chain liquidation effect; second, whether the Federal Reserve will change its stance under the dual pressure of the market and Trump. If the interest rate cut expectations become a reality and the US stock market stabilizes, then the cryptocurrency market may have a chance to catch its breath.
Overall, the foundation of the current bull market is still closely related to the performance of the US stock market. Only when the US stock market regains its upward momentum can Bitcoin and other Crypto Assets hope to break free from the current tense situation.