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① Trend. If it breaks through the 3830 level, look for the 3890 level. But here’s the problem, with today’s garbage trend, can it break through the 3830 level? It probably can’t. Some believe that this current drop may be a whipsaw, and after the wash, it will directly pump. But I think this drop is just a drop, and the rebound is merely a rebound; it probably won’t form a pump and effectively break through the 3830 level.
② Why has it developed this way, instead of continuing to oscillate upwards or even reaching new highs? Firstly, there is an inherent need for adjustment; the higher it goes, the more effort it requires. Although it’s not particularly obvious, mid-course adjustments are not up to us but determined by market manipulators. It’s just that, from our suckers' perspective, we can only see that the intensity of the adjustment is not high and is rather limited. Secondly, $btc is not showing a strong upward trend. If it were strong, it should have pumped up yesterday. It shouldn’t still be oscillating downwards now.
③ The main resistance level above is around 3800, which is also a position where it is easy to encounter resistance and fall back down. If it breaks through and holds above, it will basically follow the rhythm of 3800——3830——3890. By then, it might be painful. After all, my current view remains on the former.