Bitcoin has not yet peaked? Analysts say the "peak signal" has not appeared, and institutional confidence may drive BTC to challenge $130,000.

Bitcoin has not yet entered the upper range? The CryptoQuant indicator has not triggered the "peak signal" CryptoQuant on-chain analyst AxelAdlerJr tweeted today that Bitcoin has not yet reached the historical peak region, and the key "Peak Signal" has not yet appeared. This signal typically occurs at the market top to assess whether the crypto market is overheating.

According to its explanation, when the "normalized market cap to realized value ratio (MVRV) combined with the 30-day/365-day Value Days Destroyed ratio score reaches or exceeds 1," it will trigger the "peak signal." Currently, this indicator has not yet reached the threshold, which means that the market's upward potential may not have been exhausted yet.

Bitcoin Pulls Back After Surpassing $120,000 Driven by Institutions Driven by renewed institutional interest and improved policy environment, Bitcoin briefly broke through $123,000 on Monday, setting a new historical high. However, the price has slightly retreated, and as of the time of publication, the quoted price is $118,231.

Zilliqa's interim CEO Alexander Zahnd stated that this round of increase reflects that the crypto market has entered a "new era driven by institutional confidence." He emphasized that this market trend is not driven by leverage, but rather by spot buying, and it occurs in a relatively stable market structure, indicating that the market is becoming more mature and resilient.

BTC Expected to Challenge $130,000? Key Price Levels Revealed Zahnd pointed out that if Bitcoin can maintain its current momentum, the next key resistance level will be $123,200. If it breaks through successfully, it may further rise to $126,500, ultimately challenging the $130,000 mark.

However, he also warned that if there is a short-term pullback, the price could drop to $115,000 or $112,000, but from a long-term trend perspective, this kind of adjustment is considered a "healthy correction."

He added, "From a macro perspective, the rising levels of debt, persistent inflationary pressures, and uncertainty in monetary policy further reinforce the logic of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, and this trend is unlikely to change in the short term."

Impacting $150,000 still requires broader institutional participation Despite the increase in institutional exposure due to ETFs and custody services, Andrejs Balans, the risk management head at the EU fintech platform YouHodler, stated that inflows alone cannot quickly drive BTC to $150,000.

He pointed out that without a broader shift in institutional sentiment, the speed of reaching the $150,000 target will be constrained. "Although many bank executives have expressed interest in the crypto space, they have yet to view it as a strategic priority."

Balans emphasized that "only with widespread strategic participation at the institutional level can BTC quickly break through $150,000."

Conclusion: Strong momentum but still need to be wary of macro variables Bitcoin currently does not show signs of overheating, but short-term fluctuations are still influenced by macroeconomic variables. If the momentum continues and receives further support from institutional funds, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the target of $130,000 or even higher; however, if there is a lack of broad institutional strategic support, the path for BTC to $150,000 will still require time to brew. Investors need to closely monitor on-chain data, macroeconomic trends, and policy dynamics to assess the medium to long-term trend.