After the CPI data, Bitcoin ( BTC ) is under pressure | The surge in exchange inflows suggests selling? The key Fibonacci support level indicates an 8% pullback risk.

CPI data impact BTC single-day inflow to exchange hits recent new high Following the release of the US CPI data on July 15, Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered new pressure from capital inflows to exchanges. The price has pulled back from a recent high of $123,203 to $117,143, representing a decline of 4.9%. As bearish signals accumulate and buyers retreat, the market is concerned whether Bitcoin still faces a potential decline of 8%.

On-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant shows that on July 15, more than 80,810 BTC were transferred to centralized exchanges, setting a record for the highest daily inflow in several days. At current prices, this inflow is worth over $9.4 billion. A surge in exchange inflows typically reflects an increased willingness to sell. When a large amount of BTC moves from private wallets to exchanges, it often indicates that holders are ready to sell, especially in the case of a weak price trend.

Historical accumulation clusters provide potential support levels Glassnode's heatmap reveals two strong buyer zones: $93,000–$97,000 and $101,000–$109,000. These are price ranges where Bitcoin wallet activity was exceptionally high, indicating that a large number of investors bought in bulk, forming "accumulation clusters." During price pullbacks, these cluster areas often provide support.

The range of $107,000–$109,000 is particularly critical, as it is close to the position where BTC consolidated for several days before breaking out. If BTC continues to decline, this area may attract dip buyers returning. These accumulation clusters represent historical areas of intense buying activity, which can form natural support during a downtrend.

Bitcoin price structure weakens, 8% decline target points to key Fibonacci area The current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $117,143, having broken below the first key support level after falling from its historical high of $123,203—the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $117,293 (this retracement level is drawn based on the swing low of June at $98,160 to the historical high of $123,203). Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential pullback positions in a trend.

Further observing the Fibonacci levels, the next important support level is the 0.618 retracement level at $107,726. This level is widely regarded as the "golden pocket," where assets often bounce back during healthy pullbacks. Although there are 0.382 ($113,637) and 0.5 ($110,682) retracement levels in between, based on the candlestick structure and the lack of significant historical accumulation activity in these areas, the support they may provide is limited.

$107,726: The potential last line of defense for bulls The key factor in strengthening the support at the $107,726 area lies in its exact overlap with the previously mentioned historical accumulation cluster of $107,000–$109,000. If the Bitcoin price drops from the current position to this 0.618 Fibonacci zone, it would mean an additional 8% decline—given the surge in exchange inflows and the weakening price structure, this is a realistic target. The overlap of the Fibonacci level with the historical accumulation area makes $107,726 the most likely zone for bulls to organize their defense.

Market Reversal Conditions However, if Bitcoin is able to regain its foothold above the Fibonacci support level of $117,293 and exchange inflows decline, the bearish scenario will be invalidated. A sustained rise above this resistance level could reinvigorate the bullish momentum and bring the all-time high of $123,203 back into view.