A Web3 Practitioner's Summary of 2024 and Outlook for 2025

The year 2024 is an extraordinary year for the Web3 industry. As an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur still fighting on the front line, I would like to share my insights from the past year and my outlook for the future from four aspects: from wilderness to universality, from chaos to order, from recession to bubble, from conservatism to reform.

From the Wilderness to Universality: BTC Spot ETF Launches the Process of Universalization of Crypto Assets

In 2024, the biggest transformation in the crypto world is the upgrade from a niche subculture product to a universally valuable asset class. This transformation stems from two landmark events: the approval of the BTC spot ETF on January 10, and the election of a crypto-friendly new president on November 6. These two events respectively drove the BTC price from the $30,000 range up to $60,000, and then from $60,000 to $100,000.

Unlike the bull market in 2021, the source of liquidity in this round of the bull market has changed. In 2021, it mainly relied on the de-regulatory properties of crypto assets to attract excess liquidity, while in 2024, it is driven by political influence to promote the universal value of cryptocurrencies. This makes the value support of blue-chip crypto assets like BTC more robust, and their speculative properties have decreased.

This transformation not only affects the upper class but also has a positive impact on the mindset of ordinary practitioners. We can introduce our industry to the outside world with greater confidence, which will also lower the barriers for talent influx and cross-industry collaboration.

Looking ahead to 2025, discussions regarding the value of cryptocurrencies such as BTC will become more optimistic. We need to closely monitor the following aspects:

• Progress of relevant legislation on Bitcoin reserves at the national, regional, organizational, and corporate levels.
• Relevant remarks from key figures with political influence
• The allocation of BTC in the balance sheets of publicly listed companies in the United States

From Chaos to Order: A Global Framework for Crypto Regulation is Improving, Expect Breakthroughs in Web3 Business

For a long time, the censorship resistance brought about by decentralization and anonymity has been one of the core narratives of the cryptocurrency industry. However, this has also led to some negative impacts on the industry, such as fraud and money laundering.

From a pragmatic perspective, the cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a transition from chaos to order, closely related to the improvement of global sovereign nations' cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks. In 2024, with the inauguration of a new president and the change of SEC chairman, a more inclusive and crypto-friendly regulatory framework is to be expected. Recent judicial progress in related cases such as Ripple and Tornado Cash also indicates that the introduction of this framework is not far off.

This change will make it more feasible for Web3 business scenarios to break boundaries without bearing excessive potential legal risks. In 2025, we need to pay attention to the following areas of progress:

• The judgment results of other litigation cases
• The introduction and progress of related bills
• Changes in SEC Personnel Appointments
• Statements and opinions of key decision-makers

I am particularly interested in the following two areas in terms of potential breakout business:

1. Ce-DeFi scenario: Connecting traditional financial instruments with on-chain crypto assets, improving capital efficiency and reducing transaction costs.
2. The application of DAO in off-chain entity business management: exploring the possibility of more traditional business organizations conducting internal governance through the DAO model.

From Recession to Bubble: Three Main Axes of Traditional Web3 Business Development

In 2024, traditional Web3 business hotspots have undergone significant changes. From the LRT market represented by EigenLayer in the first half of the year, to the application layer represented by TON Mini App in the middle of the year, and then to the rapid bubble phase in the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, with a large amount of capital chasing short-cycle, high-return projects like Meme coins.

Looking ahead to 2025, traditional Web3 businesses may develop in the following three directions:

1. A more innovative grand narrative: Targets that attract capital for speculation need to maintain sensitivity.

2. More stable business revenue: For tracks that have undergone a round of iteration, the valuation model will return to a reasonable range, and real income will become the main theme of industry iteration.

3. A more balanced interest game model: exploring new models to resolve the conflicts of interest among all parties in the current financing model.

From Conservatism to Reform: Economic and Cultural Transformation Triggered by Political Change

The main theme of 2025 will be the significant changes in the economy and culture triggered by political reform. This process is filled with uncertainties brought about by the collapse of the old order, including:

• The uncertainty of the US-China government debt crisis
• The uncertainty of monetary policies in various countries
• Uncertainty in the changes of mainstream social values.
• Uncertainty in international relations

These uncertainties will bring significant volatility to the risk markets. Notably, some big players affected by the last bull market may try to inflate the prices of related assets as much as possible during the transition period before the new government takes office, in order to manage their own risk assets.

In addition, the NFT sector is also worth paying attention to in 2025. Combined with emerging speculative narratives like AI Agents, the NFT market may迎来 another spring.