The Vision of Dragonfly Partners on the Crypto Market and AI Prospects

As the crypto market slowly recovers, industry sentiment is not as high as usual. Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly, recently delved into key topics such as the current state of the industry, the positioning of Bitcoin, the impact of AI technology on the crypto space, and the future of human-machine integration in a podcast.

Industry Status: Tired but Not Pessimistic

This year's ETH Denver is not as vibrant as in previous years, mainly for three reasons:

1. Conference Diversion: Consensus Hong Kong was held in advance, dispersing the attendees.
2. Solana market share growth: attracted a large number of new users and developers.
3. The cryptocurrency prices are sluggish: this has reduced the enthusiasm for attending the conference.

The industry as a whole is in a "spiritual fatigue" state, but this may prompt people to refocus on substantial construction. Although user experience and mass adoption still face challenges, the industry has made significant progress: there are tens of millions of users daily, forming an asset class worth over $2 trillion, and it is used globally for peer-to-peer payments.

Bitcoin: Has Reached the Ultimate Form

Bitcoin has entered a stage where no marketing is needed, similar to gold. Institutions like BlackRock have instead become the most effective "salespeople". Bitcoin is essentially a "finished product", with core value in being "censorship-resistant digital gold". Although some projects attempt to add more features, Bitcoin's success lies in its permanence.

The Impact of AI on the crypto industry

AI has tremendous potential in two areas:

1. Software engineering automation: will significantly reduce engineering costs and completely change the entrepreneurial model.
2. Smart Wallets: Future wallets will become users' "crypto currency assistants", automatically completing complex operations and enhancing security.

AI agents can be divided into three categories:

• "The Wizard of Oz" type: Human-controlled, AI-generated content for selection.
• Fully autonomous: operates independently but can be shut down.
• Sovereign AI: Fully independent, cannot be shut down, may be used for large-scale fraud.

The Future of AI and Human Integration

With the development of AI, the human brain will reconnect to adapt to these tools. In the future, devices may be implanted in the brain, connected to smartphone-like devices, becoming an extension of thought.

AI may surpass humans in empathy and attention, which could lead to a reduction in real interpersonal relationships. However, face-to-face physical interaction still holds unique value.

In a future where AI dominates content production, human creation may gain higher value due to its "imperfection" and "scarcity."

What truly belongs to the unique domain of humanity is the ability for physical interaction. AI will ultimately solve all intellectual problems, but it still struggles to surpass humans in terms of physical interaction.

The emergence of AI companions may accelerate the declining trend in fertility rates, and in the future, there may be a greater reliance on in vitro fertilization technology to maintain the population.

Overall, despite the current good performance of the market, the industry still needs to remain calm. In the long term, the outlook for the encryption industry remains optimistic.