Crypto Assets Market Weekly: Global Trade Friction Triggers Market Turbulence, Bitcoin Price Recedes

This week, the Crypto Assets market has been affected by the tense global trade situation, leading to a noticeable decline in Bitcoin prices. At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin opened at $82,379.98 and closed at $78,370.75 over the weekend, down 4.87% for the week, with an amplitude of 13.92%. Trading volume has increased, and prices are operating within a downward channel, currently stabilizing near the annual line (365-day moving average ).

The biggest black swan event this week was a certain country announcing an unexpectedly high tariff policy against global trade partners, triggering severe fluctuations in the global financial markets. In response, other countries also announced countermeasures in succession. This series of events led to a significant decline in the three major U.S. stock indices this week, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones falling by 10.02%, 9.08%, and 7.86% respectively. The market value of U.S. stocks evaporated by over $5 trillion.

In terms of economic data, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for March showed strong performance, with an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve Chair stated in a speech that the U.S. economy remains strong, but new tariff policies could weigh on economic growth and inflation.

The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy have changed significantly. As of the weekend, traders expect that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 4 times this year, with the probability of a rate cut in June exceeding 90%.

In terms of the Crypto Assets market, there was a net outflow of $333 million this week, with $178 million outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs and $108 million from stablecoins. This breaks the previous trend of four consecutive weeks of net inflows. Considering the severe fluctuations in the traditional financial market, this scale of outflow is relatively limited, but caution is still needed for potential additional selling pressure.

On-chain data shows that the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges this week reached 188614.7 coins, increasing the selling pressure from short-term holders. The amount of Bitcoin held by centralized exchanges increased by 3116.1 coins, indicating that selling pressure is accumulating. It is worth noting that since late February, most short-term holders have been in a state of unrealized losses, with the recent unrealized loss ratio reaching 16%, setting a new high for this cycle.

Long-term holders continue to play a stabilizing role in the market, increasing their holdings by 53,300 Bitcoins this week. However, unless the traditional stock market rebounds or the Federal Reserve adopts an easing policy, the market is unlikely to gain sufficient upward momentum.

According to the cyclical indicators of a certain data platform, the current Bitcoin market is in an upward continuation phase. However, the ongoing development of global trade frictions and their impact on the macro economy will be key factors influencing the trends of the Crypto Assets market in the coming period. Investors need to closely monitor the policy trends and negotiation progress of various countries, while also being wary of market volatility risks.