Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC and ETH fluctuate downwards, Altcoin performs relatively strong

This week, the crypto market showed overall fluctuations, with BTC and ETH failing to follow the rise of US stocks and other risk assets, instead experiencing a decline.

Performance of BTC and ETH in the crypto market

Bitcoin has experienced an independent decline this week, mainly influenced by two factors: first, there was a drop when market liquidity was weak over the weekend; second, this week the BTC from the Mtgox address has moved, and the market anticipates a possible final payout.

Ethereum followed the market decline, but the drop was smaller than Bitcoin, indicating relative strength. From the perspective of the spot ETF fund flow, it still shows an outflow trend, reflecting the current low interest of investors in Ethereum.

Important Event Review

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September have been adjusted: the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, but there are differences in the extent of the cuts. Based on the latest economic data, a 25 basis point rate cut is more likely, which falls under a conservative cut.

2. US economic data better than expected: July CPI and core CPI data, as well as the number of initial jobless claims, all exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy remains resilient. This has lowered market expectations for a significant interest rate cut in September.

3. Geopolitical tensions intensify: The situation in the Middle East continues to worsen, Ukraine escalates its attacks on Russia, and geopolitical risks rise.

4. Mtgox Address BTC Movement: This Wednesday, approximately $2 billion BTC moved from the Mtgox address, leading to speculation in the market that it may be preparation for the final payout. This triggered a short-term market decline, but in the long run, the 10-year Mtgox risk may come to an end.

Altcoin Market Overview

This week, the crypto market fear index rose to 13%. Although it has improved compared to last week, it still remains in the fear zone. Altcoins performed better than BTC and ETH, showing a certain degree of catch-up rally.

However, due to the lack of obvious hotspots and the influence of macro factors, the competition between bulls and bears is fierce, and funds entering Altcoins are relatively few, making this supplementary rally difficult to sustain. The tokens on the rise are scattered across various sectors, including L1s, NFTs, ETH-L2, DXE, and cross-chain tracks.

The rebound of Meme coins this week is generally weaker than in other sectors. The L1s sector has received high attention on social media, with most related projects performing better than BTC and ETH.

According to weekly return statistics, the SocialFi sector performed the best, mainly benefiting from the strong rise of TON. The AI sector performed the worst, with most tokens showing sluggish trends, indicating that market attention and capital flows have shifted.

Market Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Improving U.S. economic data has alleviated recession expectations, but geopolitical instability and differing expectations for interest rate cuts still exist.

2. Ethereum: The continuous outflow of funds from the spot ETF indicates that the current price lacks attractiveness, and it is expected to remain highly correlated with Bitcoin, oscillating in sync.

3. Altcoin: The rebound in this week's market may come to an end, and it is expected to fluctuate in sync with the overall market next week. Due to the lack of sustained capital inflow, it will be difficult to maintain an independent upward trend.

Investors should closely monitor important events next week, including industry conferences such as OORT Summit, Devcom & Gamescon, as well as macro indicators like the initial jobless claims data from the United States, to timely adjust their investment strategies.