2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF at the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced a bull market cycle. Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, driving the altcoin market, and is currently hovering around 90,000 USD. It is worth noting that the altcoin market often starts when Bitcoin reaches its peak, with the first round being Bitcoin's surge to 69,000 USD, and the next round possibly targeting 100,000 USD.

Looking ahead to 2025, the following four scenarios may emerge:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins generally rise with a probability of 30-40%
2. Bitcoin rises, some altcoins rise ( 50-60% probability )
3. Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall with a probability of 20-30% (
4. Bitcoin and altcoins are generally down by a probability of 10-20% ).

Due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, it is expected that Bitcoin will not take long to reach new highs in 2025. The new political environment brings more attention to digital assets, which is beneficial for Bitcoin to continue rising. For altcoins, the situation may be similar but slightly different.

Overall, Bitcoin is likely to continue rising in 2025, with an increase greater than in 2024. Altcoins will also maintain an upward trend, but there may be a certain degree of correction.

Risks to pay attention to include:

• The arrival of the cycle top
• Uncertainty of the Bitcoin Reserve Program
• Supply-side risk ( as a large amount of Bitcoin flows into the market )
• Macroeconomic risks ( such as inflation rising again )

When it comes to token selection, you can pay attention to the following areas:

1. AI-related tokens
2. DeFi tokens
3. Layer 1 public chain tokens
4. NFT and game tokens
5. Other topics such as data tokens, Meme tokens, etc.

11 Predictions for 2025:

1. A certain company will implement DePIN in some way.
2. A certain trading platform will lose market share of the largest exchange.
3. Metaverse tokens are revitalized with the progress of VR
4. The Rise of ICOs Again
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. The price of a certain public chain token will reach double digits.
7. Ethereum ETF pledge approved, giving rise to more staking yield products
8. A well-known artist will use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan engagement.
9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000
10. More public chain founders resign
11. A certain L1 public chain failed in the competition with other public chains.

Overall, the crypto market is expected to continue the bull market in 2025, but investors still need to be cautious in seizing opportunities and managing risks appropriately.