Global financial markets are focusing on the state of the US economy. As economic indicators continue to decline, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to hold two key hearings in Congress. These hearings will discuss inflation, Intrerest Rate policy, and potential risks of an economic recession, attracting significant market attention.

The latest published Leading Economic Index (LEI) data is concerning. The index declined by 0.1% again in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline and dropping 16% from its peak, reaching a new low not seen in nearly 9 years. Even more alarming is that there have been negative values recorded in 37 of the past 39 months, the most severe economic trajectory since 1960. Historically, every time a similar situation has occurred, the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

Powell's visit to Congress is facing multiple pressures. On one hand, the White House hopes to cut interest rates soon to stimulate the economy; on the other hand, there are differing voices within the Federal Reserve. Two key officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have publicly supported easing monetary policy starting in July, which is seen as a challenge to the current policy.

Market expectations for adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policies are also rising rapidly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in July has reached 23%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September is as high as 82%. This change in expectations could have a significant impact on various asset markets.

For the cryptocurrency market, a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy could have significant impacts. Historical experience shows that the combination of recession signals and loose monetary policy often triggers a strong rebound in crypto assets.

Overall, this week's economic data and Powell's congressional testimony will have a key impact on the future direction of the market. Investors should closely monitor these developments, as they may signal significant economic turning points and opportunities for asset repricing.