From the three dimensions of geopolitical risks, technical patterns, and capital sentiment, today's BTC contracts exhibit characteristics of "event-driven rebound"; however, the validity of the breakout of the key resistance level still needs to be verified. Below is an analysis and operational advice based on the latest information:

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### 🌍 1. Geopolitical Turbulence and Market Reaction
1. **Ceasefire agreement triggers a deep V rebound**
U.S. President Trump announced a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" between Israel and Iran, propelling BTC from $98,200 to $106,075 in a rapid surge (over 8% increase in 24 hours), with short positions liquidated amounting to $495 million (76% of them being short orders). The panic sell-off triggered by geopolitical conflicts (14,700 BTC sold at a loss) was quickly reversed.

2. **Emotional repair but divergences still exist**
- **Institutions Continue to Buy**: Spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of over $1 billion for two consecutive weeks, with institutions like BlackRock increasing their positions on dips.
- **Retail investors remain cautious**: The fear and greed index is only 37 (fear zone), and altcoin activity is sluggish.
This round of Rebound is more driven by programmatic buying and short covering, rather than a comprehensive bullish sentiment in the market.

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### 📊 2. Key Price Levels and Technical Signals
1. **Intraday Bull-Bear Watershed**
- **support level**：
- **$105,000** (psychological barrier + today's Rebound starting point)
- **$103,700** (SSD indicator 0.95 percentile, breaking below will weaken)
- **99,200-95,600 USD** (on-chain dense transaction area, iron bottom defense level)
- **resistance level**：
- **105,371-106,507 USD** (gap + historical strong resistance, triggered a 17% flash crash here in April)
- **110,000 USD** (consolidation zone)

2. **Contradictory Signals of Technical Indicators**
- **Bullish Signal**：
The 4-hour MACD histogram continues to expand, with trading volume rising in sync, forming a bullish structure of "volume and price rising together."
- **Risk Warning**：
RSI has not broken through the previous high, and the derivatives liquidation heat map shows that **$106,507** has gathered $920 million in short stop-loss orders, which may trigger significant volatility.

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### ⚖️ 3. Long and Short Strength and Derivative Indicators
1. **Bullish Advantage Area**
- **Funding rate hits a new high**: The perpetual contract rate reaches 0.098% (a peak for the year), indicating enthusiasm for leveraged long positions.
- **Institutional holdings are firm**: The exchange saw a net outflow of 1,800 BTC, with long-term holders buying against the trend.

2. **Short Potential Opportunity**
- **Volatility Trap**: The put skew in the options market remains high, reflecting concerns about the medium to long-term trend.
- **Excessive Leverage Risk**: The XBIT platform uses 83% of staked lending for long positions, and a price drop may trigger a chain liquidation.

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### 📌 4. Suggested Operating Strategies
#### Intraday contract scenario:
- **Breakthrough Buy More**：
If it can hold steady at **105,371 USD** with increased volume, a small long position can be attempted, targeting **106,500 USD** (stop loss below 103,700).
- **Long on Pullback**：
Enter positions in batches at the **102,000-101,000 range** (20-day moving average + demand zone), with a stop loss below 99,200.
- **Shorting resistance**：
Close to **106,500 USD** and showing signs of stagnation (long upper shadow + volume reduction) can reverse to a short position, with a stop loss above 107,000.

#### Short-term Band Logic:
- **Bullish Defense Line**: **$95,600** serves as the boundary between bulls and bears. If broken, a deep correction to $83,200 (statistical baseline lower limit) will occur.
- **Breakthrough Acceleration Condition**: After breaking through **106,507 USD** with increased volume, the next target is **110,000-114,800 USD**.

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### ⚠️ V. Risk Warning
1. **Geopolitical Variables**: Iranian officials deny the details of the ceasefire agreement, and the situation still carries the risk of fluctuations.
2. **Macroeconomic Events**: The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July is heating up, which could suppress risk assets if it does not materialize.
3. **Technical Risks**: If it cannot hold above $105,000 during the day, it may form a "false breakout trap."

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### 💎 Summary
> **Today's Core Logic of Contracts**: The rebound driven by geopolitical benefits has entered the resistance deep water zone (105,000-106,500 USD), **it is not advisable to chase highs without an effective breakthrough.**
> - **Aggressors**: Take profit in batches above 105,000, buy on a pullback at 102,000;
> - **Conservatives**: Watch for the result of the 106,500 breakthrough, and enter the market in the direction after confirming stability.
> Closely monitor the developments in the Middle East and the correlation with the opening of the US stock market (a drop in the S&P 500 will suppress BTC).